Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.

I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two issues: Why the EU isnt naming a Russia envoy and the upcoming EU-Moldova summit.

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Wider Europe Briefing: Why The EU Won't Name A Russia Envoy

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Briefing #1: Why The EU Wont Name A Russia Envoy

What You Need To Know:When EU foreign ministers gathered in Cyprus on May 27-28, one topic was dominating the conversation -- that of the bloc nominating a person to talk directly to Moscow about the war in Ukraine. But it appears nothing was settled. No mediator was named, and no mandate was put forward. Its a dead topic, only kept alive because you journalists keep asking about it. That was the verdict of a senior EU official when asked about the prospect of not only agreeing on a special envoy but also that person having a clear mandate to negotiate with the Kremlin.

It is not only media speculation, however, that keeps this topic going. The main reason these discussions took place was Russia. And then because of Ukraine. And then because of individual players inside the club. Earlier in May, the Kremlin threw the ultimate curveball in Brussels direction when they suggested that Gerard Schroeder, the former German chancellor and close Putin confidant, should be the EU envoy. EU officials that RFE/RL has spoken to see this as classic Russian trolling, with Moscow keen to take the spotlight away from losses on the battlefield or political embarrassments such as the puny and badly attended May 9 parade.

Deep Background:Moscow is also well aware of the EUs weakness in uniting around one candidate and one message. Thats why the EUs foreign policy chief and outspoken Russia hawk Kaja Kallas again in Cyprus warned that it is a trap that Russia wants us to walk into, that we discuss who talks to them, and they are already picking who is suitable and who is not. For now, it appears that she has managed to steer the EU countries to talk about the mandate, not the person -- a mantra that is oft repeated these days. But the question is if the EU can even agree on a mandate.

Drilling Down:

• So far, the EU member states seem to agree that the bloc can never be a neutral mediator as it explicitly supports Ukraine and that any talks will start only after a cease-fire on all sides is agreed and maintained -- something that has proven elusive after over four years of fighting.
• In February, Kallas herself issued a highly maximalistdiscussion papercalling for elections in Russia, reparations from Moscow for war damages, major reductions in Russian forces, and the withdrawal of Russian troops not only from Ukraine but also from Georgia and Moldova. The sweetener for Russia was gradual EU sanctions relief.
• Kallass paper was widely ridiculed and the discussion hasnt really moved forward since then. In fact, EU ambassadors in Brussels were discussing a new sanctions package on Russia, the 21st since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the same day as foreign ministers met in Cyprus.
• The EU will also officially start accession talks with Ukraine in mid-June. If Brussels was really serious about mediating the Ukraine conflict, now would not be the time. Instead, Brussels has long concluded that Russia isnt particularly interested in real talks either.
• But the situation changed somewhat when Ukraine -- notably both President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha -- recently asked Europe to engage in talks.
• These requests seem to have died down a bit in recent days, however, as Sybiha, according to European diplomats, didnt push for the EUs involvement in talks while meeting his counterparts in Cyprus.
• Instead, he mentioned "precise, doable steps" that can complement, rather than replace, the US-led peace process such as the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and the establishment of humanitarian corridors.
• EU officials have also indicated to me that they believe Ukraines push to involve the EU was primarily a message to Washington -- urging it to remain actively engaged in a diplomatic solution -- while the US is currently focused on Iran.
• Dont expect the issue to go away just yet. There are, after all, individual EU member states, especially larger ones, that will keep on talking about this. Which means that media speculation about a potential EU envoy will rumble on.
• Paris, Berlin, and Rome are all annoyed that, so far, they have all been overlooked during the negotiations. Most of the names put forward so far -- the former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, ex-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Schroeder -- are former leaders from big European nations. They are always looking for jobs and the current presidents, premiers, and chancellors, want them out of the hallways in their respective capitals, one European diplomat told me.
• Then there are the skilled self-promoters, as theyre often called in Brussels. A notable example is Finnish President Alexander Stubb, whose reputation for talking to Putin is widely viewed by some EU officials as just as overhyped as his supposed Trump-whispering prowess.

What You Need To Know:The European Union and Moldova will have its second ever summit on June 22 in Brussels as Chisinau finally looks set to start accession talks with the bloc in the days just before the high-level gathering. In the draft summit declaration, seen by RFE/RL, there are no hints of dates, the number of accession chapters to be opened, or the speed of the process. So far, the text just notes that We reiterate our commitment to advancing Moldovas EU accession process swiftly and based on credible reforms and the principle of its own merits. There is a placeholder in brackets in the draft document acknowledging the opening of clusters, a reference to groups of negotiation chapters in the EU accession process.

Deep Background:The 33 negotiating chapters are divided into six clusters, and Brussels is currently awash with rumors about how many clusters and when they will be opened for Moldova and Ukraine as they are coupled in the enlargement process and so far, have taken all relevant steps together.

The 33 negotiating chapters are divided into six clusters. Brussels is currently buzzing with rumors about how many clusters -- and when -- will be opened for Moldova and Ukraine. The two countries have been closely coupled throughout the enlargement process and have taken all key steps together so far.

The enlargement buzz is in large due to the recent change of government in Hungary, which many EU diplomats hope will kick-start a number of EU initiatives as Budapest had imposed numerous vetoes. The previous Hungarian government had for two years blocked Ukraine from officially starting EU accession talks due to what Budapest said was discrimination of the Hungarian-speaking population in Ukraine; as Chisinau didnt seek to decouple itself from Kyiv, it was, by extension, not moving either. While Hungary still has bilateral issues to iron out with Kyiv, something that is expected in various bilateral meetings in early June, it is believed that Ukraine and Moldova will open at least one of the six clusters on June 16 -- just a week before the EU-Moldova summit. And several EU officials that RFE/RL has spoken to say that they hope that the other five clusters can be opened for both countries as early as July.

Drilling Down:

• The other key takeaway from the summit declaration is that Brussels will continue to ramp up lethal military aid to Chisinau -- something it started providing last year via its off-budget credit line called the European Peace Facility (EPF).
• The EUs decision is not without controversy, as Moldova continues to uphold military neutrality under its constitution.
• The draft paper notes that we will continue to work towards the further integration of Moldova into the European security and defense architecture and its participation in relevant initiatives and cooperation mechanisms. We appreciate the continued and reinforced cooperation under the European Peace Facility, meant to respond to the most urgent operational needs.
• A new concept note, seen by RFE/RL, states that Brussels is planning to provide an extra 120 million euros ($140 million) to Chisinau over the next 60 months to complement already delivered equipment into a coherent air surveillance and defense system interoperable with EU and NATO states. The funds are also intended to cover training and budget to ensure adequate maintenance of the equipment.
• The main EU funding for Moldova in the coming years will still come, however, from the so-called 1.8 billion euros Moldova Growth Plan presented in 2024. The concept note says that some 504 million euros has been released so far and that an additional 528 million euros in financial support from the facility will be unlocked if Moldova continues at a steady pace and achieves all the reform steps due in 2026.
• The key reforms, as always with prospective EU member states, are aimed at ensuring an independent judiciary, fighting corruption and organized crime, and protecting the rights of people belonging to various minorities.
• While not outlining all the reforms, the text of the draft declaration interestingly mentions both judicial vetting and the need to root out corruption even at the highest level, describing those goals as essential elements of Moldovas democratic transformation and its EU path.

Looking Ahead

Look out for the EU-Western Balkan summit in Tivat, Montenegro, on June 5. No summit declaration will be agreed but it is expected that negotiations formally will commence just before the summit to create a mobile roaming-free zone between the EU and the six EU hopefuls in the region. Ukraine and Moldova have since January 1 enjoyed a similarroam like homedeal.

That's all for this week! Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail [email protected].

Until next time,

Rikard Jozwiak

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Wider Europe Briefing: Why The EU Won't Name A Russia Envoy

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