For decades, power in Iran was centralized in the hands of a single man: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But since his killing at the onset of the US-Israeli war with Iran on February 28, decision-making in Tehran has become increasingly decentralized, experts say.
Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since he succeeded his father in early March. In his absence, a cohort of senior Iranian officials have been effectively running the country.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), a dominant political player, has now become the decisive force in Iran, experts say. Reformists and moderates have been relegated to the political fringes, leading to a more hard-line and ideologically rigid system.
Key power centers and figures have emerged in whatsome observerscall the Islamic republic 3.0. While many of these figures are aligned on major policies, some fissures have surfaced.
SEE ALSO:
Trump Says US Doesn't Need China's Help On Iran
Mojtaba Khamenei: New Supreme Leader
As supreme leader, the 56-year-old has the ultimate say on all state matters. But his authority has been undermined from the outset.
Khamenei was a controversial pick as supreme leader. The cleric had never held public office, and some argued a move toward "hereditary rule" would betray the very anti-monarchist roots of the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
Seriously wounded in the same Israeli air strike that killed his father, Khamenei has also been absent from public view since his appointment on March 8. He suffered injuries to his head, lower back, and foot but was now "in complete health," Mazahar Hosseini, head of protocol in the supreme leader's office, said on May 8.
US intelligence has said it believes Khamenei plays aprominent rolein war strategy and managing peace talks with the United States. But in a system where the supreme leader is omnipresent -- issuing audio messages, making video addresses, and appearing in public to display his authority -- his absence is striking.
"Iran has entered a period of transition after the death of Ali Khamenei and the end of his 36-year leadership," Ali Afshari, an Iranian political analyst based in Washington, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda. [It's] a challenging period in which the postwar alignment of forces will be decisive."
Hossein Taeb: Behind-The-Scenes Operator
A hard-line cleric, Taeb led the IRGC's intelligence branch for 13 years until 2022, when he was dismissed as part of amajor security shakeup.
Hossein Taeb is a longtime confidant of Iran's new supreme leader and considered a key figure behind the scenes.
Taeb, who is blacklisted by the United States and European Union for his alleged role in state repression, worked in the supreme leader's office before he was appointed as the IRGC's intelligence chief in 2009.
A longtime confidant of the younger Khamenei, Taeb is considered a key figure behind the scenes. Experts say he could play an important role in managing Khamenei's relationships with key players inside the system.
Ahmad Vahidi: IRGC Chief
The IRGC, the elite branch of Iran's armed forces, has always played a key role in politics. But it is now the dominant political force in the Islamic republic after the killing of Ali Khamenei.
That's despite Israel and the United decimating the leadership of the IRGC, including killing its commander in chief, Mohammad Pakpour.
Ahmad Vahidi, a former interior and defense minister, took over the IRGC in March.
Pakpour's deputy, Ahmad Vahidi, a former interior and defense minister, took over the IRGC in early March. But experts say it is unclear if Vahidi has the clout and credibility to unite the competing factions within the IRGC.
Experts say the war and the securitization of Iran following Ali Khamenei's death has allowed the IRGC to pay a central role in the domestic and foreign affairs of the country.
"The era after Ali Khamenei remains ambiguous. However, one key fact is visible: the increasing role and power of the IRGC in the administration of the Islamic republic," Mojtaba Najafi, a France-based Iranian political commentator, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
"Today, a significant part of the country's administration is in the hands of the IRGC," he added. "Militarization in the economy, politics, culture, and society has also now reached a stage of maturity."
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf: The Intermediator
Qalibaf is a conservative politician and former military commander who spent decades cultivating ties to Iran's supreme leadership and the IRGC.
After a career overshadowed by corruption scandals and failed presidential bids, he arguably finds himself as the most powerful figure left standing in the Islamic republic.
Experts describe the role of Qalibaf, the parliament speaker who is also Iran's top negotiator with the United States, as a mediator between the different centers of power in Iran. He is considered close to the new supreme leader.
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the parliament speaker who is also Iran's top negotiator with the United States, is as a mediator between the different centers of power in Iran.
This was the role played by Iran's powerful security chief Ali Larijani before his assassination in March. Larijani was a unifying figure who brought together competing political factions and maintained strong ties with the IRGC, intelligence apparatus, and clerical establishment.
"Qalibaf has always been a pawn" used by the leadership, Hossein Razzaq, a political analyst based in Germany, told Radio Farda.
"Today, with the elimination of other key pawns, the role he plays for the system has become more prominent."
Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr: Security Chief
A former commander in the IRGC, Zolqadr succeeded Larijani as the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the country's key policymaking body.
While Larijani was known as a shrewd and pragmatic politician, Zolqadr is a hard-line security and military official.
Razzaq considers the general's appointment as an attempt by Khamenei to divide power among his loyalists. His selection, he said, also underscored the dominance of the IRGC in the different centers of power in Iran.
Masud Pezeshkian: The Powerless President
The reformist president is not a major political player and not considered a threat by the hard-liners who dominate the system.
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian
Pezeshkian's role is administrative, running the day-to-day affairs of the government. But the final decision on major issues, including war and diplomacy, is made elsewhere.
He and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi are the only members of the reformist and moderate political camps to play a visible role in the new power structure. Like Pezeshkian, Araqchi does not have decision-making power but follows orders from above.
Still,differences have emergedthat pit figures like Pezeshkian and Araqchi who are pushing for diplomacy against generals who oppose making concessions to the United States in negotiations to end the war.
The Islamic Republic 3.0: Who Holds Power In Iran?
Share
Share
Copy link
Facebook
X (Twitter)
LinkedIn
Email
Share
Share
Copy link
Facebook
X (Twitter)
LinkedIn
Email
Print
Share
Tweet
Share
Flip
Email
